Home » Is iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ:IQ) Trading At A 44% Discount?

Is iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ:IQ) Trading At A 44% Discount?

by 100IQ Win The Knowledge

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How far off is iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ:IQ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they’re fairly easy to follow.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for iQIYI

The calculation

We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)

-CN¥1.86b

CN¥944.0m

CN¥1.58b

CN¥2.11b

CN¥2.61b

CN¥3.06b

CN¥3.44b

CN¥3.77b

CN¥4.04b

CN¥4.26b

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x5

Analyst x6

Analyst x4

Est @ 33.11%

Est @ 23.75%

Est @ 17.2%

Est @ 12.62%

Est @ 9.41%

Est @ 7.16%

Est @ 5.59%

Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8%

-CN¥1.7k

CN¥798

CN¥1.2k

CN¥1.5k

CN¥1.7k

CN¥1.8k

CN¥1.9k

CN¥1.9k

CN¥1.9k

CN¥1.8k

(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥13b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 8.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥4.3b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (8.8%– 1.9%) = CN¥63b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥63b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= CN¥27b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥40b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$4.1, the company appears quite undervalued at a 44% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

dcf

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at iQIYI as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.392. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won’t be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For iQIYI, we’ve put together three important items you should further examine:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 4 warning signs with iQIYI , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

  2. Future Earnings: How does IQ’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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